Shorted RIMM, AAPL, GS, OIH, FCX with ATM Sep puts.
Downside SPX targets are 970, 935, 870 before Sep Opex.
Target for GS – $130
Target for RIMM – $50
Target for AAPL – $130
Target for OIH – $80
Target for FCX – $40
As of Monday Aug 17, 2009 4:15PM ET, these levels are:
AAPL – $155
RIMM – $75
GS – $155
QQQQ – $38 (massive massive OI in puts at $38 level)
IWM – $53 –> difficult to see this happening
SPY – $98
GOOG – $440
After a 60 point move down in 4 days, SPX found support at 870 on Wednesday.
Pre-market is showing strength…
On wendesday, ES built up lot of volume in the 880-882 region. If the gap up is above that, then this region might act as support and we might get a trend-up day.
Dollar is weak again, pushing oil back up. Here are key resistance levels for some of the stocks and indexes that I follow. These are good points IMO to initiate a short position.
Be wary of today being a trend up day though. As for the move to the downside, I think a visit to 790-810 is in the order.
ES – 886, 900 (key resistance levels)
CME – 290 (previous swing lows)
ICE – bounce to 90 (major resistance). Next level is up at 105 – doubt if ICE gets that far
AAPL – gap fill at 140 (The gap at 142.50 may not get filled)
RIMM – 67.50-68
GS – 142.5 and then 145
Oil – 63 (trend line), 66 (50% retrace of move down)
Long via ATM Jul calls – RIMM, AAPL, FCX, OIH – small positions.
Stop loss moved to breakeven
Target
sell 25% at ES = 892
sell 25% at ES = 896, move stop for rest to ES = 892
sell 25% at ES = 900.25, move stop for rest to ES = 896
sell final 25% at ES = 906
When the market did not play out as I had expected. The move down in first hour lacked momentum. So, it was a clear indication that the indices will move up as the day progressed. Like always I expected NQ to lead the way, which is why I put in tight stops on some of my tech puts.
Got stopped out of this one too.
BOT them here for $2.37 – miniscule 12.5% profit.
SOLD PALM Jul $16 puts @ $1.20
MANAGED Positions in GS Jul $145 puts to get an average price of $3.62
MANAGED Positions in GDX Jul $39 puts to get an average price of $1.08
SOLD RIMM Jul $70 puts @ $2.73
MANAGED Positions in QID Jul $32 calls to get an average price of $1.23
SOLD BIDU Jul $270 puts @ $3.30
BOT USO Jul $38 puts @ $1.20
BOT OIH Jul $100 puts @ $3.40
MANAGED positions in TZA Jul $22.5 calls to get an average price of $1.57
MANAGED positions in ICE Jul $110 puts to get an average price of $3.00
BOT IPI Jul $29 puts @ $1.70
DISCLAIMER: I own position in AAPL which is in significant loss, which could alter the way I think where AAPL is headed.
EDIT: I had mistakenly said that AAPL will gap down below $140. Someone in the comments pointed this out asking how and why did I think so. I meant to say $141. I have added a 20day chart of AAPL that shows that $140.5 – $141.5 is a key level for AAPL. My thesis is a big gap down on Monday, which requires AAPL should open below this key level (AAPL being a big component of NQ).
DISCLAIMER: Nothing contained anywhere on this site constitutes any investing advice or recommendation. Any purchases or sales of securities are solely at the discretion of the reader.
$72 region was a support. Now it will be a strong resistance.
Here are a bunch of charts with some annotation which should be self-explanatory. Some love shared right at the top of this page will be greatly appreciated 
DISCLAIMER: Nothing contained anywhere on this site constitutes any investing advice or recommendation. Any purchases or sales of securities are solely at the discretion of the reader.
BOT them yesterday @ $2.38 – 40% profit
