My Life My Trade

Oil should go up 5% or so, which means USO moves up by 5% too. That would be a $1.65 move in USO there by translating to almost a 50% up move in the calls.

After a 60 point move down in 4 days, SPX found support at 870 on Wednesday.

Pre-market is showing strength…

On wendesday, ES built up lot of volume in the 880-882 region. If the gap up is above that, then this region might act as support and we might get a trend-up day.

Dollar is weak again, pushing oil back up. Here are key resistance levels for some of the stocks and indexes that I follow. These are good points IMO to initiate a short position.

Be wary of today being a trend up day though. As for the move to the downside, I think a visit to 790-810 is in the order.

ES – 886, 900  (key resistance levels)
CME – 290 (previous swing lows)
ICE – bounce to 90 (major resistance). Next level is up at 105 – doubt if ICE gets that far
AAPL – gap fill at 140 (The gap at 142.50 may not get filled)
RIMM – 67.50-68
GS – 142.5 and then 145
Oil – 63 (trend line), 66 (50% retrace of move down)

Going forward, all the trades for a given day will be posted in the comments section for the “Plan & Trades” post for that date. I will stop making a separate post for individual trade. It just unnecessarily increases the number of posts making it a huge inconvenience to go through the blog.

At the end of the day, I will summarize all the trades and edit the “Plan & Trades” post to include the trades here.

Plan for Jul 1, 2009: Ahead of the long weekend, I expect lighter trading activity, and it usually results in an upward bias. Additionally, all the bears and lots of bulls are looking for a quick downside here given that Q2 is over AND the possibly non-existent window dressing is over as well.

I expect us to chop around in the range between ES 908.5 and 918 with an upward bias. If we visit the lower end of the range, I will start to scale into longs. If we visit the upper end of the range and breach it, I will look to add shorts around ES 926, ES 930 and so on. There is a good chance we might create a higher high than today.

I will use Jul options mixed with Aug options till Thursday. I do not intend to hold onto any un-hedged Jul options beyond Thursday mid-day. If there is a position that I want to hold over the weekend, very likely I will roll over into August options. The goal here is to eliminate as much of the 3-day theta burn as possible.

Trades for Jul 1, 2009

• SELL FSLR Jul $160 Calls @ $8.80
• BUY CME Jul $330 Calls @ $3.30
• BUY OIH Jul $100 Puts @ $3.30
• BUY USO Jul $39 Puts @ $1.35
• SELL CME Jul $340 Calls @ $2.25 (hedging the Jul $330 Calls esp ahead of long weekend)
• BOT a bunch of puts on GDX, GLD, PCLN, AAPL – details later in the day. Got to go now.

UPDATE: Closed all positions. 100% cash now.

BOT them here for $1.13 – 23% profit in 2 days.

BOT them for $3.40; SOLD them for $4.15 – 20% profit

I am posting this screenshot here because I was questioned by someone in an email regarding credibility of my trades. I will do so for *some* trades from time-to-time, but not all.

SOLD PALM Jul $16 puts @ $1.20

MANAGED Positions in GS Jul $145 puts to get an average price of $3.62

MANAGED Positions in GDX Jul $39 puts to get an average price of $1.08

SOLD RIMM Jul $70 puts @ $2.73

MANAGED Positions in QID Jul $32 calls to get an average price of  $1.23

SOLD BIDU Jul $270 puts @ $3.30

BOT USO Jul $38 puts @ $1.20

BOT OIH Jul $100 puts @ $3.40

MANAGED positions in TZA Jul $22.5 calls to get an average price of $1.57

MANAGED positions in ICE Jul $110 puts to get an average price of $3.00

BOT IPI Jul $29 puts @ $1.70

DISCLAIMER: Nothing contained anywhere on this site constitutes any investing advice or recommendation. Any purchases or sales of securities are solely at the discretion of the reader.

BOT them here for $1.50 and then averaged down yesterday to $1.18 a contract – 1% profit (almost breakeven after commissions). Nailed the high price of the day on this one. By the end of the day this was down to $1.10 a contract.