My Life My Trade

You were right to close your puts last Tuesday as we rallied on Wednesday. That was an awesome call. I left my puts open going into wednesday but had sold puts to hedge my position. It would have been better to dump them completely on tuesday and reload on wednesday. But it's all hindsight. Still I did catch the move on thursday so I'm not totally annoyed. But I had to give you props for your call last week.

What is your view for Monday and the rest of the week?

Based on what I saw on Thursday, I am very strongly inclined to say that we will see a bounce to at least ES909 (spx 913). If I was a betting man, I will say we see SPX 940 this week.

The pattern seen last week was repeated in April and May and each time we saw new highs for the post-march-low rally.
the reason I say we get to 940 is because I am sure people went crazy short and we will see a massive short squeeze.

The sectors that will get ignited on Monday are tech and possibly, precious metals.

If however we gap down below spx888, then panic selling might kick in.

I am mostly in cash.. with a few longs.. travelling right now.. so can't do new posts.

It'll be interesting to see how GS trades tomorrow. As much as I'd like it to roll over with the rest of the market and tank, I'm worried about what appears to be a "three white soldiers" pattern on the daily chart indicating that GS might just run up up and away...

I got out of my GS puts today.. What bothered me was that on such a big down day, SRS was down.. Also, financials usually move down quite a lot on such a day, which they did not. They were exhibiting relative strength. So, I got the hell out of GS puts.. May be this time GS *will* breach 150 in a more conclusive manner.

I really am starting to have serious doubts about bearish case now.

Thats funny. GS was down today so I was thinking wow I guess MLMT made the right trade yet again!! Buying PALM puts after it spiked over 16 was pretty ballsy, but you were right on agaiin as it dropped the next day. You've been on fire lately. I'm surprised you got out of all your puts today.

I'm not sure why SRS wasn't up more. It might have to do with the news that rate at which houses prices decline is declining. I also heard some arguments on the radio today why commercial real estate might not be in as much trouble as some say it is.

I'm a believer in the H&S pattern on the SPY. What really sold me on it is that the volume has been decreasing from the left shoulder to the head and now to the right shoulder - which is a clear indicator of lack of enthusiasm for such high SPY prices.

Buying PALM puts was an easy one - whenever there is a big move after earnings.. usually, there is a small dip (similar to the dead cat bounce that happens right after a big dump). But the dip was much smaller than I expected. Also, the market was up that day which killed VIX and reduced my profits on that play.

What surprised me the most today was that on such a red day, RIMM, AAPL & PALM were nicely in green. NQ has been the leading index.. and there is no head and shoulders there.. This is why I closed my puts.

I really see a range bound trading here.. So, what I really look for is oversold and overbought stocks and play them accordingly. Playing indexes is also fine, but risk-reward is not as good.

As for GS, if you pull up a 2 year chart, you will see that $150 - $152 is a serious resistance.. so GS did not make it through on first attempt. I believe that it will make it through on the next attempt. But the easy money is made.. there is a lot of supply all the way upto $185.

I may be proven wrong in closing the puts today.. But unless I get a strong move in the direction that I am looking for, I prefer to stay on the sidelines. Plus today, I was busy playing the quarterlies - so I really didn't want to be distracted by what was happening with other tickers.