My Life My Trade

At a minimum we should see 14.750 and there is a good chance we will see 14.550 soon.

When ES 976 – 978 held this morning, I got suspicious. Also, despite a good sized move down, some of the big names like AAPL were not in red – So I closed out all of my overnight Aug puts (for a decent profit) as well as all of my Sep VIX calls (at slightly better than breakeven).

This bounce is god’s gift for the bears – I added more short positions today – mainly in FCX & OIH.

ES 998.75 might well be the high for this move up before a nice sized down move starts. I am still expecting an intra-day reversal.

The max pain level for GOOG is $440 for the upcoming August expiration.

On a day when Nasdaq is up more than 1% and most of the big tech names are up 2 to 3%, GOOG has spent most of the day in red and has budged a few cents only. This is more evidence that GOOG is getting pinned to $440 and not $450 (although I am sure that MMs will flirt with $450 to suck in more bag holders)

Shorted RIMM, AAPL, GS, OIH, FCX with ATM Sep puts.

Downside SPX targets are 970, 935, 870 before Sep Opex.

Target for GS – $130

Target for RIMM – $50

Target for AAPL – $130

Target for OIH – $80

Target for FCX – $40

As of Monday Aug 17, 2009 4:15PM ET, these levels are:

AAPL – $155

RIMM – $75

GS – $155

QQQQ – $38 (massive massive OI in puts at $38 level)

IWM – $53 –> difficult to see this happening

SPY – $98

GOOG – $440

are 982.5, 988 and 992.

A move above 992 will do a serious damage to the IT bear case IMO. The bounce should take ES to at least 988 and if not for the opex week, it would have been achieved in the first 30 minutes of the day. However the opex week gyrations make this complicated.

on the most recent dip of ES below 980.