$SPX Target is 1035-1040

September 21st, 2009 7:03 am mylifemytrade Leave a comment Go to comments

A quick peek at the SPX daily chart for past 9 months shows that all retracements to the downside have ended at the prior swing highs. Since nothing much has changed, the expectation is for the prior swing high of 1040 to provide nice support area.2009-09-21-spx-daily-9moThere is a small caveat though: As SPX has progressed upwards, the topping around each swing high is becoming smaller and smaller in duration, which means that the support provided by each prior swing high is becoming weaker and weaker.

2009-09-21-spx-daily-3mo

And one of these days, the prior swing high WILL NOT provide the expected support, which should lead to much significant downside. The most recent swing high around 1070 lasted only 2-3 days. Whenever this region gets tested on the move down, IMO, it will crack.

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  • I will add the following thoughts as well:

    If 1040 region holds (as assumed above), then the move up will have characteristics of a blow off top.

    The top should coincide with gold $1030+, silver $18+, EUR/USD 1.5000+, VIX 20-

    This will give us the first meaningful retracement of this rally.
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