My Life My Trade

Oil should go up 5% or so, which means USO moves up by 5% too. That would be a $1.65 move in USO there by translating to almost a 50% up move in the calls.

EUR/USD should bust through 1.4000 to the upside… The first attempt failed earlier this morning. Oil is a very good buy here for a short pop. One could use USO or OIH August calls. I am more included to use USO because it is tied 1-1 with the crude futures. OIH is a very different animal and has a lot bearing with where SPX is going.

Day trade – tight stop

EDIT: Mistakenly I had written $49 calls in the title of the post when it should have been $48 calls. You can go and check that the highest that the $49 calls have traded today is $0.67 as of 8:00AM PT.

Swing trade – tight stop

See this video

After a 60 point move down in 4 days, SPX found support at 870 on Wednesday.

Pre-market is showing strength…

On wendesday, ES built up lot of volume in the 880-882 region. If the gap up is above that, then this region might act as support and we might get a trend-up day.

Dollar is weak again, pushing oil back up. Here are key resistance levels for some of the stocks and indexes that I follow. These are good points IMO to initiate a short position.

Be wary of today being a trend up day though. As for the move to the downside, I think a visit to 790-810 is in the order.

ES – 886, 900  (key resistance levels)
CME – 290 (previous swing lows)
ICE – bounce to 90 (major resistance). Next level is up at 105 – doubt if ICE gets that far
AAPL – gap fill at 140 (The gap at 142.50 may not get filled)
RIMM – 67.50-68
GS – 142.5 and then 145
Oil – 63 (trend line), 66 (50% retrace of move down)

IMO Monday would classify as successful retest of the 880 support region (from May).

Up we go towards the high end of the range.

Every one talking about head-n-shoulder. I doubt we get that. In fact, I am 100% sure that we don’t get that.

We will most likely see SPX 913. There is a good chance we might even see SPX 920.

Currency action suggesting that EUR/USD has again found support at 1.3800, and would go back up to 1.4 and above… in all probability.

Long via ATM Jul calls – RIMM, AAPL, FCX, OIH – small positions.

Stop loss moved to breakeven

Target

sell 25% at ES = 892

sell 25% at ES = 896, move stop for rest to ES = 892

sell 25% at ES = 900.25, move stop for rest to ES = 896

sell final 25% at ES = 906

More details later.

In fact I net delta positive USO by selling lot more USO puts