Plan & Trades for Jul 1, 2009

June 30th, 2009 11:58 pm mylifemytrade Leave a comment Go to comments

Going forward, all the trades for a given day will be posted in the comments section for the “Plan & Trades” post for that date. I will stop making a separate post for individual trade. It just unnecessarily increases the number of posts making it a huge inconvenience to go through the blog.

At the end of the day, I will summarize all the trades and edit the “Plan & Trades” post to include the trades here.

Plan for Jul 1, 2009: Ahead of the long weekend, I expect lighter trading activity, and it usually results in an upward bias. Additionally, all the bears and lots of bulls are looking for a quick downside here given that Q2 is over AND the possibly non-existent window dressing is over as well.

I expect us to chop around in the range between ES 908.5 and 918 with an upward bias. If we visit the lower end of the range, I will start to scale into longs. If we visit the upper end of the range and breach it, I will look to add shorts around ES 926, ES 930 and so on. There is a good chance we might create a higher high than today.

I will use Jul options mixed with Aug options till Thursday. I do not intend to hold onto any un-hedged Jul options beyond Thursday mid-day. If there is a position that I want to hold over the weekend, very likely I will roll over into August options. The goal here is to eliminate as much of the 3-day theta burn as possible.

Trades for Jul 1, 2009

  • SELL FSLR Jul $160 Calls @ $8.80
  • BUY CME Jul $330 Calls @ $3.30
  • BUY OIH Jul $100 Puts @ $3.30
  • BUY USO Jul $39 Puts @ $1.35
  • SELL CME Jul $340 Calls @ $2.25 (hedging the Jul $330 Calls esp ahead of long weekend)
  • BOT a bunch of puts on GDX, GLD, PCLN, AAPL – details later in the day. Got to go now.
Categories: Daily Plan, My Trade - Options Trade Tags: , , , , ,


  • lisa
    Do you consider to re enter FSLR at this point , able to hold 155 ....
  • I just entered FSLR Jul 160 calls - might get out EOD.. tight stop.. If it creates a new low, then I am out.
  • thyname
    Gap fill on FSLR around 152 (and not 155). Good entry for long at that point. Maybe tomorrow for me.
  • I agree gap fill is closer to 150... dont remember the exact value.. I am willing to try going long here with a tight stop.. Remember what happened with RIMM - we got close, but never quite closed that gap up in 90's. I don't want to be left empty-handed trying to get a perfect entry. I am willing to try a reasonable levels with very tight stop.

    The only problem here is that if it gaps down on jobs report - then it is a problem..

    I think we will keep going up into the weekend and into bank earnings.. I have to check if bank earnings come out first or the tech earnings come out first.
  • ES needs to break the 923.50 price. fucking lot of buy there.
  • I think the key level is 919 and 917 on ES... 919 is the high of the day from Thursday and Friday last week.
  • Let me know what do you think about my performance ;-)

    http://www.screencast.com/users/Twat_Waffle/fol...

    Any tips to make this look better is appreciated. :D
  • Sweet Jesus... That is one amazing chart... Slow and steady.. you are already in the groove TW.. Just keep your mental fortitude and you will keep doing great like this... One mental lapse and it can screw up days and days of effort.. You are doing an amazing job.. i think it is a good thing you lost that stupid job of yours. Go get your dreams dude.. they are waiting for you :-)
  • 7:45AM PT TRADE

    Added Jul ATM puts on AEM, GDX, AAPL & RIMM. Details later.
  • 7:42AM PT MARKET UPDATE

    ES & NQ bouncing between VWAP and VWAP+2 --> seems like trending day
    TICK barely negative --> seems like trending day
    IWM outperforming SPY & QQQQ --> seems like hot momentum players are back in

    http://screencast.com/t/Vg3mdx0PPTk
  • 7:35AM PT

    SELL CME Jul $340 Calls @ $2.25 - hedging my Jul $330 Calls here.
  • 7:36AM PT

    Oil taking a massive dump after the inventories number. USO puts nicely in green. Lets see if this holds.
  • 7:30AM PT TRADE

    Buying Jul USO $39 Puts @ $1.35 ahead of oil inventories.
    Buying Jul OIH $100 Puts @ $3.30 ahead of oil inventories.
  • 7:29AM PT

    Thinking of scaling into some shorts here - AAPL, RIMM, FCX, OIH, GDX, AEM - potential candidates.
  • 7:28AM PT MARKET UPDATE

    ES up against yesterday's highs. This will be the tell. IMO, it will get breached here.
  • 7:26AM PT ZERO

    Zero Indicator has not gone below the zero mark. But given the size of the upmove, it is not showing much participation. My thinking that it might be a trending day is probably incorrect.
  • 7:15 AM PT MARKET UPDATE

    On the rare negative tick of the day so far, both ES & NQ bounced off the VWAP. 920 is a crucial area of support on ES.
  • 7:10AM PT MARKET UPDATE

    $TICK very strong so far in the first 40 minutes. So far, it has the makings of a trending day.

    EUR/USD up against decent resistance at 1.4150 mark. Quite a big move in EUR/USD overnight pushing gold up by $12 and Oil is up almost $2.
  • 7:05AM PT TRADE

    CME down $7 on no apparent news. ICE is down by more than $1 as well. I can't find any relevant news. With the broader market up almost 1%, both CME & ICE could be good swing longs. Not playing big because the market is up against yesterday's highs. If yesterday's highs are taken out, then it will be very bullish. I don't think that if yesterday's highs are being taken out, it is a fake out. I think that yesterday's down move was fake out.

    BUY CME Jul $330 Calls @ $3.30
  • 7:05AM PT TRADE

    SELL FSLR Jul $160 Calls @ $8.80 (stopped out) - 33% profit in 1 day.

    100% cash now.

    The market looks as if the bear case is in trouble. With the new month here, we might be headed to the new highs.
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