EUR/USD Update

June 18th, 2009 3:55 pm mylifemytrade Leave a comment Go to comments

For last 3 weeks, EUR/USD is in a wide downtrending channel. And there has been a broad-based weakness in the equities in keeping with the dollar-equities inverse correlation that has existed.

For last 3 days however, EUR/USD is within a mini uptrending channel within this downtrending channel. Note that within the mini channel, EUR/USD is at the bottom of the channel. So, some upside is expected in the futures overnight. However, EUR/USD will hit the top of the big downtrending channel and should start a big move down to 1.3500 which I have talked about in my prior posts on EUR/USD – this move may begin tomorrow or on Monday following the Opex. And this move should be accompanied by a visit to SPX 875-880.

If you found something useful here, please do share some love.

2009-06-18-eur-usd-update

Categories: Currencies Update Tags:


  • cotguy
    MLMT,

    I see your posts over at Z's. I appreciate your blog and your thoughts. Best of health and wealth to you.
    JC
  • It looks like an inverse cup and handle...
  • I trust what you say - you just have to show me where is the cup and where is the handle.. I have heard about this formation, but never bothered to figure out what it is.. I know that an inverse cup and handle should break to the downside.
  • http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cupandhandl...

    The cup is the upside down U shaped hump contained by your two green trendlines. The handle is the upward trending channel that the EUR-USD is currently contained in. Yeah I agree, I'm looking for it to break to the downside.

    Yeah I'm looking for a break to the downside on the EUR-USD as well. But I'm not sure how it will come about- that is I don't necessarily see potential downtrends on other currencies vs the USD.
  • You're right. It looks a lot like an almost completed inverse cup with handle. MLMT, do you remember me posting one of those on ES ref silver (not inverted though)?

    Like the H&S, it indicates a powerful move down, subject to confirmation of course.

    Thank bist. Much appreciated.
  • Good Morning - Yes I remember the silver one. Thanks:-)
  • 1.35 may be a little bit extreme considering we are bumping between 1.42 and 1.38 for 2 weeks now. I don't think USD is going higher because there are US Bonds up for auction next week. We continue to sell treasuries and Bonds, otherwise where do we get money that we gave to the banks. USD is toast, the people will suck up expensive oil.
  • Wouldn't a strengthening dollar make the bonds more enticing..

    I know everyone likes to buy stocks cheap.. but as a trader would you rather buy a stock that just hit a nice low and is moving up OR a stock that is still on the way down.
  • Thanks MLMT, I'll be doing this one. I've been waiting for a good entry point.

    Love shared.
  • On Moo's blog, Moo posted a response to my post in his daily trades thread. Some imp forex impacting announcement coming out of Britain tonight. Check that message out. It might impact your trades. Thanks for the love shared.
  • Thx. GBP so volatile I've been avoiding it lately. Trade will be EURUSD. I'll watch out for it though. Generally interested in GBP as it is my home currency.

    Slightly concerned by the amgrant scenario which is a possibility today / Monday, though I am expecting falls to 875/880 as much higher probability outcome. Tight stops I think. Hopefully we'll trade higher initially for good entry points. 927 ideal (SPX) with stops at 934 for me.
  • Bottom
    i think that 1.4 mark still serves as a place.
    It'll be interesting to see.

    there will be plenty of easy borrowing..
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