My Life My Trade

Where OIH goes is a function of where the broader market, SPX goes (which in turn depends on economic outlook) and where Oil prices go (which in turn depend on the strength of the dollar AND the economic outlook, to some extent). However, it is still useful to do some technical analysis of the OIH charts.

Ever since the March lows, OIH has been in a very clean uptrending channel. However, it is gradually showing some weakness. On the most recent bounce from the lower side of the channel (in late May), it failed to reach the upper trendline of the channel. Additionally, 3 days ago it broke out of this channel to the downside on very high volume. All of these are bearish signs. Lets delve in further. Let us look at key support and resistance levels on the OIH Daily chart below. $105 is a key level which was busted in the recent move to the downside. Further down below, there is a moderate support level at $93 mark, and then a very very strong support at $88 mark. In my opinion, in near term any move to the downside will NOT breach the $88 level.

Let us see what the oscillators are saying. On the weekly chart, all three, the stochastic, MACD and the RSI have rolled over, suggesting a bearish move is up ahead.

Interesting.. the daily chart however shows that in near term OIH is oversold and might sport some bounce here. it might either bounce back up to the $105 level which was just breached OR less likely, it might test the trendline again. I believe that any bounce will be limited to the $105 region.

SUMMARY: I will wait to short OIH. I think a small bounce is coming. However, it all depends on where the broader indices go. However, the weekly chart is very bearish and is showing that it is headed down, most likely to the $88 level.

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